Comparing bio-economic farm models: evaluating uncertainty of impacts of climate and socio-economic changes on arable farming in Flevoland (the Netherlands)

Submitted by marcel.lubbers on Fri, 07/01/2016 - 15:15
Abstract

Bio-economic farm models (BEFMs) can be used to assess the impact of climate change and associated socio-economic scenarios on farming systems and to evaluate different adaptation options. One of the BEFMs, Farm System SIMulator (FSSIM) was initially developed to generalize farm plan modeling and to be re-used for different bio-physical and socio-economic contexts. Two research projects  AgriAdapt and LIAISE  used FSSIM to assess the impact of climate change and associated socio-economic scenarios on arable farming in Flevoland in the Netherlands in 2050. In these two projects, FSSIM was linked to crop and market models and simulated farm plans under certain resource and policy constraints, where profit maximization was incorporated as underlying mechanism. Although AgriAdapt and LIAISE used FSSIM for arable farming in Flevoland for the same research aim, many factors were different: objective function, activities, farm types, data source, and constraints (we shall call these ‘modelling frameworks’ in this study), climate and socio-economic scenarios, and crop and market models that simulated the yield and price changes respectively. It has not been investigated so far how these differences affected the simulation results between AgriAdapt and LIAISE. ...

Address
Droevendaalsesteeg 1, 6708 PB, Wageningen, The Netherlands
Author
Yutaka Tsutsumi
Country
Netherlands
Date
Mentor(s)
Pytrik Reidsma, Argyris Kanellopoulos
Type
MSc